Monday 27 December 2010

Analysis of the Property Market 2010

Index
Since this is my first analysis, it will encompass my experience since February 2007. At that time, everybody was doing property and we were getting 85% LTV at what seemed to be cheap credit mainly because lenders were giving it away at x% BELOW BoE base rate and others used LIBOR. The deposit was gifted by the developers of new build houses and apartments.

In August 2007, I secured an apartment with a mortgage of £117K @5.79% fixed for 2 years against a value of £135K. It rented for £510 against £563 mortgage and £140 costs - I was subsidising the rent to the tune of £194 pcm. At the same time, the Credit Crunch' was announced and although the base rate went down slowly, my outgoings remained the same as my rate was fixed. Although I raised the rent and eventually took over the management, I was still subsidising the rent by a large margin.

On 15th September 2008, Lehmans Brothers collapsed sparking the biggest financial crisis ever prompting the BoE to aggressively reduce the base rate so that by March 2009, it had reached the magic 0.5% where it had remained since. But I still couldn't take advantage of it because I was STILL in the fixed rate period. Furthermore, the value of my apartment had fallen to under £100K putting me in negative equity AND negative cashflow. Fortunately, I was in a highly paid job as a computer programmer which helped me to more than afford the difference between costs and rent.

In October 2009, my mortgage dropped to £304 + £80 pcm which puts the apartment in cashflow positive territory. Since then it has slowly increased to £314 as it's a LIBOR tracker and this is giving me advanced warning of where base rates are heading.

By now I had purchased another property with a mortgage of £54K and a £25K personal loan. The payments were £236 mortgage + £317 personal loan + £14 insurance = £567 against £560 pcm rent ie £7 casflow negative. But it had a valuation of £96K which meant I had plenty of equity. The mortgage is on a 3-year fixed rate of 5.29%. It now has a valuation of £98K and a rent of £575 ie it's £8 cashflow positive.

2009 saw a slight rise in property prices thus reducing yields. Borrowing criteria tightened raising entry costs for first-time buyers and movers. Those who couldn't sell their houses entered the rental market rather than sell their properties at fire sale prices. This created a shortage of stock which raised prices; and an increase of letting capacity which lowered rental yields. Towards the end of 2009, the tightening criteria reduced the number of buyers and the only buyers in town were experienced cash rich BTL landlords.

This trend continued into the first half of 2010 which continued this price increase which, in turn, encouraged sellers to come out in the 2nd half of 2010. I bought 2 more properties in the first half of 2010 - one in Feb. and one in July. In the second half of 2010, as more sellers entered the market, many things happened:
  1. Prices started to fall thus raising rental yields
  2. But, because credit criteria was very tight, many people opted to rent thus raising yields
  3. Reluctant landlords became sellers thus reducing rental stock which, in turn raised yields
 At the start of 2010, many pundits predicted that 2010 would see house prices rising between the round figures of 5% and 10%. It's looking like 2010 will end with a little over 3%. This is the national average and results are highly regional. London being the region that consistently bucks the trend. With the draconian cuts in the Public Sector and the VAT rise to 20% from January, predictions for 2011 are up in the air. But there's a common consensus that prices would continue to fall throughout 2011 and into 2012. The Government, with the help of the EU, will tighten the financial rules making credit difficult to get, at least when compared to pre-recession levels.

So, the forecast for property prices in 2011 is that they would fall by as much as 5%. Yields are unpredictable because if prices continue to fall, sellers may become reluctant landlords thus reducing yields. This may be countermanded by people opting to rent as unemployment rises and wages get cut. There may be a rise in repossessions thus increasing the number of cheap properties in the market. These will be snapped by BTL landlords who will increase the rental stock thus reducing yields. So it seems that yields will be stagnant at 2010 levels. But, if the unemployment rises appreciably, yields will rise.

Thursday 23 December 2010

Experience 4: The Crewe Property

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I've heard a lot about property deal packagers and decided to give one of them a try. In June, one company was offering a 2bed house in Crewe, Cheshire for £5995 all in. There would be a mortgage of £51,000 to maintain at a cost of £200 pcm. I paid the fee and completed in July while my Willenhall property was being refurbished.

The company said that he can find a builder who can put in a central heating system and redecorate for under £3000. In fact, it only cost £2700 but it took 3 months to do. The company also arranged the letting agent who would also manage it for me. The company said that it would rent for £450 pcm.

When the agent showed some tenants round the property, she noticed that there was a musty smell and the presence of flees - the previous owner had pets! She also noticed that the property had an extensive damp problem. So she hired a builder to do an estimate, and he suggested, that if I'm gonna do it, I should do it properly - get a new kitchen and bathroom. I agreed to it immediately because this is what I did to my other properties. The cost was £8000 on top of the £2700 I paid earlier. This took another 10 weeks to complete which is relatively quick considering the amount of work that needed to be done.

Now that the work had been done, the agent managed to let it for £495 pcm - £40 more than the stated rent. So, refurbishing a property to a high standard, not only achieves a higher rent, but it also increases the property's value. Unfortunately, because the equity is used as a deposit in these types of deals, you can't draw any increase in value efficiently. But, if you paid a deposit, you can remortgage after 6 months to release the deposit and any increase in value. So, I completed on the property on 5th July and rented it on 23rd December that's almost 7 months - 7 interest payments of £200 each.

I conclude that the average time to properly refurbish a property is 6 months and the average cost is £11,000. I'm sure there are builders who'll spend less time doing it and hence charge less. Personally, I don't worry about these one-off costs unless they're prohibitively expensive. I calculated that the maximum spend is as follows:

Double glazing 5000
Central Heating 2000
Kitchen 3000
Bathroom 2000
Flooring 1000
Decorating 1000
Drive 2000


This gives a maximum total of £16,000. Barring structural faults this is the most you can expect to pay for proper refurbishment to a high standard.

Experience 3: The Willenhall Property

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In December 2009, I put an offer for a 3bed terraced house in Willenhall. Although this was also a repossession, it didn't need as much refurbishment as the Weoley Castle one. The agreed price £59,000 with a mortgage of £45,000. Because I had exhausted all my cash, I had to remortgage my main residence which was unencumbered.

The refurb cost only £8,000 but it took another 5 months from the completion in February 2010. Then I gave the keys to the estat agent who sold it to me to let it for me. Four months later, there was no tenant. Early in November, I found a flyer from a couple of specialist letting agents who noticed that my house hadn't been let all this time. So I took a chance on them and with 2 weeks they found a tenant for me for £475 pcm. This was the net figure as they were DSS tenants and they've negotiated their management fee with the Council.

I should get professional builders who will do a top notch job fairly quickly and with receipts that you can set against CGT. I should've been wiser because I made the same mistake with the Weoley Castle property.

Another lesson to be learnt is that you must place your property with a letting agent who specilises in lettings and nothing else. Furthermore, if your property is still on the market after 2 weeks then change the agent. If it's still not tenanted after a further 2 weeks then drop the price. Researching the market for property prices helps when determining if a purchase is a bargain or not. The research should include information about rental values so that you can set a realistic rent and get it rented quickly.

Experience 2: The Weoley Castle Property

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After the nightmare of the apartment, I decided to wait until the the property market had stabilised. Since October 2007 (when I eventually got a tenant) I had been reading a lot of news which made feel that I had made the wrong decision by entering the market at the wrong time. In March 2008, I felt that it was way too early to renter the market and decided to wait another 6 months.

In September 2008, Lehman Brothers collapsed and with it the financial system went down as well. This forced me to lay low a while longer. I still looked at properties but never made any offers. Despite all this, I noticed that some properties were being snapped up quickly but others remained on the market for months on end.

But in January 2009, all 12 properties that I viewed were sold. I was convinced we had reached the bottom of the market and I started looking at property more seriously. In February, I put an offer on a repossessed property in Weoley Castle, Birmingham UK. Unfortunately, my father died that month and it delayed my purchase for 2 months. I thought I had lost that property but the Estate Agent phoned me about it and I told her that I still wanted it. If it didn't get sold in the previous 2 months, it could mean that the market quietened down. So after a survey claimed that it was a high maintenance property, I lowered my offer but they couldn't accept it so I increased it by £1000 and they said they'll let it go for an extra £500 to which I agreed.

The purchase price was £71,500 and I spent a further £13,500 refurbishing it. When I applied for the mortgage, the lender said that it's only available to experienced landlords and asked me to send an AST (Assured Shorthold Tenancy) agreement. Although the mortgage was only £54,000 with a payment of £236 pcm, I had to pay another £317 pcm for a personal loan I took out to pay the deposit and costs. The refurb was from savings, after all, I had saved around £18,000 while I was waiting for the market to stabilise. Because I was a novice, the refurb took 6 months to complete for which I paid over £3000 in interest payments. I completed in May 2009 and got a tenant in November.

I refurbed the house to the same standard as my new-build apartment which meant that I got a high paying tenant quickly - I gave the letting agent the keys on a Saturday, he advertised it on the Monday and he got a deposit on it on Tuesday i.e. the following day. They were long-term tenants i.e. they signed a 12-month tenancy agreement.

In May 2010, the tenants said that they were being harassed by the neighbours and wanted to leave. I said OK provided they they give me a month's notice and that they'll lose their deposit as they're in  breach of contract. They eventually agreed as they've found an alternative place which will become available in July. This effectively gave me 2 months notice. The relatives of the tenants tried to get their deposit back so I asked them to give me a written account of the harassment they were subjected to so that I can make an official complaint to Birmingham City Council. I have a duty to protect my future tenants. They refused to give me such an account which led my wife to suspect that it was an excuse to be released from tenancy agreement.

As far as I'm concerned, Weoley Castle is a friendly and quiet place of high demand and high rental values. It had a notorious reputation in the 70s and 80s but Birmingham City Council had cleaned it up since then. There are some rough necks around but you'll find them in most neighbourhoods To be honest, I was worried but my wife wasn't as she's been there and didn't witness any alleged activities and we're Asians in a white community.

I was lazy, I didn't ask the letting agent to market it for me until 10 days before the previous tenants left. The agent was very good, he found one within a few days but they didn't move in until 3 days after the previous tenants had left. Still these 3 days gave me enough time to tidy the place up. To be fair to the previous tenants, they left it in a spotless condition. However, they left a sofa, an armchair, and a broken cupboard in the drive; but Birmingham City Council moved it before the new tenants moved in. I took the opportunity to raise the rent to £575 pcm and the tenants didn't negotiate - I felt that I didn't charge them enough.

This property was a happy investment for me and it sort of compensated me for the fiasco with the apartment. However, the fact that the lender asked me for an AST, means that the fiasco had a uses - it enabled me to get a mortgage and take advantage of the low prices in the market place. Experienced landlords are seen as a lower risk than others.

Sunday 29 August 2010

Experience 1: The apartment

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I started investing in property in February 2007. Before that I bought my own property in 2006. I found it to be relatively straightforward and thought that I could make a living out of buying and selling property. Because I didn't know about the property market, I went on number of courses most of which were free but 2 of them were paid for. I felt that the free ones didn't give me enough information to turn it into a business. I was disappointed when the paid for ones were similar - the only difference is you get more information. In other words, it's still a hard graft.

In September 2006, on one of the free courses, the presenter offered one piece of advice - if you're a first time investor, then buy one property, let it out and manage it for 12 months then buy further properties otherwise you'll struggle and you could lose a lot of money. My wife was with me and she took it to heart.

We looked all over the place for suitable properties but couldn't find any - they were beyond our means. Then a development of new apartments were being built a hundred yards from our house, but we've missed it. However, the builders got permission to build another wave of apartments and houses but, again, their prices were through the roof and it looked like we were going to miss out again.

Fortunately, in December, we found a property club who were offering 2-bed apartments in this phase II of the development for a mere £4256 plus costs. The costs were to be paid directly to the property professional: Solicitors (£975), Mortgage Brokers (£495), and Surveyors(£270). With the exception of the survey fee, the others were to be paid on completion.

We jumped at it and asked for more information. When we noticed that the developer's valuation  was  £145,000 and the mortgage was going to be £123,000, we changed our minds. Then, in February 2007 we thought about the whole thing and decided to jump in with our eyes closed. Besides, we'll only be paying  under £6000 and the mortgage will be paid from the rent estimated to be £600 to £650 pcm.

I borrowed £4000 as a personal loan from Northern Rock and signed the dotted line and paid my deposit (£4256). Then in April, the mortgage broker arrived, did some calculations and concluded that a rent  of £600 won't cover the mortgage of £123,000. He asked me to pay an extra £7000. Now I have a disposable income of £1000 a month and, since September I had already accumulated £6000 after paying the installments on the personal loan. So I said OK because the money will be paid on completion, I just have to agree to it on exchange. However, I had to pay the survey fee there and then. I actually sent it by cheque to the surveyor's office, the one he gave me.
In July 2010, my solicitor called for the extra £7000 to be paid into the escrow account and I sent her a cheque for that amount. Two weeks later, my solicitor informed me that the lender is exercising his right to survey the property in its finished state. I said that I don't mind. A week later, the solicitor told me that the apartment was valued at £135,000 not £145,000. That made me over £8,000 in negative equity from day 1, that's on top of the extra £7,000 I had already paid.

Fortunately, the developer phoned me and told me about the discrepancy and asked me to pay extra. I thought hang on, they don't know that I had already paid the extra. So, I refused to pay it. Now I remember exchanging contracts after agreeing to pay the extra. It seems that their solicitor omitted to put that agreement in the contract and I've already paid it into the escrow account. Two weeks later, my solicitor called me with excitement in her tone of voice. She said that the developer accepted the lower valuation and that now the lower mortgage can be supported by the rental valuation. So, she was going to send the £7000 back to me.

When I tried to put it on the market, my letting agent refused to put it at more than £550, so I had to subsidize the mortgage (£563) as I had to pay a service charge (£80pcm). My account in September 2010 was over £10,000 and I thought I'm going to buy another one. My wife remembered the advice that presenter gave us about first timers should buy one property and manage it for 12 months then buy some more. So she successfully, persuaded me against it and I didn't need much persuading as we've been waiting for over a month and no tenants.

Seven weeks later, still no tenant. While we were shopping in Cape Hill, West Midlands, we came across another letting agent and we went in and asked about his track record. We had to wait about 15 minutes as he served 2 tenants before us. I was convinced he was the right agent for us that I signed a contract and gave him the 2nd set of keys. When I told him that I had ordered furniture earlier, he became angry and said that I'm limiting his market hence his success. We went back to the furniture store and canceled our order. The agent had just saved us over £1000.

A few days later, he called me that he had a male tenant who was willing to pay £525 but he needs a sofa and 2 beds as a minimum. I said OK because I was desperate for a tenant. He said don't rush into this, there are plenty of tenants out there. A few days after that, the agent found a female tenant who has her own furniture for £510. He recommended this one as the furniture would've cost me around £600 and that cannot be reclaimed from the extra £15 pcm.

Six months later, the tenant didn't renew her tenancy. I asked the agent about it and he advised me not to say anything as she has automatically moved into a rolling contract on a month by month basis - each party has to give the other one month's notice before moving. Five months after that, she renewed her tenancy for 12 months at £525pcm. She probably thought she was signing a 12-month contract.

She has been in the apartment for almost 3 years and, it turned out that she's a student. Now most university courses are 3 years duration and she could leave on the 1st October 2010. I hope she's a medical student so that she'll stay for another 3 years. Because developers continued to build apartments and houses in the same area, she only agreed to a rise of £5pcm in the 3rd year.

If she does go, I'll miss her as she got her polish friends to repair the apartment free of charge as well being clean and tidy. After a grueling 2 months after I bought the apartment, the next 3 years were trouble free.
In December 2007, there was talk of a credit crunch which ended the house price inflation and the slow fall in prices started. It looked like I bought the apartment at the height of the property and I will lose the deposit that the developer paid or rather did without.

After the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, the Bank of England started to aggressively reduce base rate. But that wasn't good for me as I was locked into a 2 year rate fixed at 5.79%. That meant that I had to pay over the odds for another 12 months. When my mortgage reverted to a Standard Variable Rate, my payments were reduced from £563 to £305. Even if you add the service charge of £80, The apartment is now cashflow positive even if it's in negative equity. The apartment was estimated to be around £100K but now it has slowly clawed its way to £104K still £13K below the mortgage of £117K.

Naturally, my wife and the presenter were vindicated for different reasons. This experience has proved to me that there are risks with property investments. My minimum paper loss is around £24K made up of £6K initial costs and £5K subsidies. If I were to sell now, I'll be lucky to get £100K. It looks like that I could crystallize a net loss of over £30K.
My other experiences were less worrying...